President Jonathan’s Palava And The APC’s Challenge By Odusote Oluwakayode

The evergreen song of the abami eda says ‘Rat sleep, Cat go bite its tail, wetin e dey find? This part of the track is suitable to simply describe Uncle Jonathan’s “Palava” with the decamped governors of the former PDP.  Generally, the message of Fela is always with me: Don’t dare when you can’t face the consequences.

The recent agreement by the New-PDP to join forces with the opposition is perhaps the biggest political alliance in our democratic adventure – Five Governors decamped from a “ruling party” to a formidable opposition party. The hand writing had been on the wall for the president since July when the formal merger of the ACN, CPC and ANPP was consummated.

The crisis within the PDP has been roughly fought for months without a logical solution proffered despite the intervention of former President Olusegun Obasanjo and other leaders of the party. The aggrieved governors traversed the entire country consulting and making their positions known as far as the umbrella party is concerned just as a precursor to taking the daring step to decamp.

This situation should remind us of a few things – keeping promises. The failures of the president to deliver on promises made are major disadvantages in the course of getting the sympathy of Nigerians just like he got before becoming president. In the politics of interest as we currently experience, it would have been a plus for the president if he has the confident support of the masses.

It is laughable when the likes of Dr. Doyin Okupe blast the airwaves with boasts. The president have forgotten that they are not just doing what they are paid to do, they are doing everything possible to protect the source of their daily income. The fact that you are an assistant to the President does not mean you can’t be frank – at least being frank in private with the president on political reality. In such regard, if the president seems not to listen, it is honorable to resign such appointment, although such action is not common in Nigeria.

As much as critics like to talk about the All Progressives Congress Party as noise makers, the party is still very much alive making noise of what is genuinely wrong in government, winning support and sympathy of the masses and moving closer to the villa with sixteen (16) progressives’ governors spread across ethnic lines to its credit.

From history, we know that change is hard and often messy, and the rebel governors with the APC, whose whole identities are about democratic change, will always be ready to adopt necessary means that such change brings.

The president may have nothing to sell to the public to gain some measurable support. It has always been said, the nation can’t live on statistics. The nation is simply under serious need for development. You can’t promise more than you can provide. When the president told the people they could keep their heads high for a season of “fresh air” which sadly, without a sign of remorse turned out to be a “hot air”, he and his loyalist should know that that hurts. The eventual realization to the governed is another leader that has proved to be dishonest.

The presidency should understand that the level of people’s political awareness is gradually increasing. Rigging cannot always be depended upon. A government cannot mock the electorates and scorn their votes because a biased and tainted electoral umpire’s hands are soiled.

The All Progressives Congress are going to harp on these failures of Jonathan and trumpet the hardship stories for as long as the 2015 Villa is occupied or the national political advantage is even — and that may be a while.

It is not new, such things as we experience happens in politics. It is good for democracy and a virile two dominant national political party just like the American model of the Republican and the Democrats is healthy for our development. This nation is too large to be subjected to a one party state or rule.The presidency defender like Gulak and Okupe should advice Mr. President Right. The noise being made will not win elections and rigging is fading. Politics is a game of numbers and the moment you give your opponents a stick, they will strike you with every strength they’ve got.

A report this week from The Nation Newspaper carefully analyzed the 2011 elections in comparison with the 2015 expectations.  “In 2011, the elections in Kano showed that the leaders now in APC dictated the pace. In the presidential election, the party’s candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, polled 1.62 million votes, followed at a distance by ANPP’s Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau who was the governor of the state. In the third place was President Goodluck Jonathan, the PDP’s candidate with 440,686 votes, leaving ACN’s Mallam Nuhu Ribadu in the fourth position with a paltry 42,363 votes. Now, all the four leading parties in the state are in the state structure. Thus, it has become academic to ask which the dominant party in the state is. While the dynamics swung in favour of the PDP in the hotly contested governorship poll, the leading parties merely shuffled their positions…

In the 2011 presidential election, the Bukola Saraki-led PDP was credited with 288, 243 or 64 per cent of the total votes cast while the CPC polled 83,603 and the ACN 62,432. As in Kano, all three tendencies are now in the APC. It is a formidable platform…

In Sokoto, the dominant parties in all the elections in 2011 were the CPC and PDP. Governor Wamakko’s disenchantment with the party had begun to show at the PDP presidential primaries in Abuja where delegates from Sokoto clearly voted against President Jonathan. At the presidential election, CPC polled 540,769 votes to PDP’s 309,067. While the reverse was the case in the governorship election that returned Wamakko to office, all the elections showed that the PDP and CPC decided what happened in the state. They also proved the electoral worth of the governor. When it is noted that former Governor Attahiru Bafarawa is also involved in the formation of the APC, it is obvious that the next elections are for the APC to lose in the state.

The situation in Rivers State is not as straightforward. While the PDP swept the polls the last time, the defection of Governor Amaechi is an acid test of his popularity. How much of the victory in 2011 could be attributed to Amaechi’s personal charm and what proportion could be credited to the party structure? At the moment, the governor retains hold of the governance structure as well as the dominant faction of the party. However, the sentiment that a son of the region is President and the hostility of other PDP governors in the South South would test the resilience of the governor who was Speaker of the House of Representatives for eight years. The fact that he retains the control of the legislature and representatives in the National Assembly is an indication that he is a strong factor in his own right.

The trend in Adamawa where Governor Murtala Nyako was one of the first to indicate that it was all over with the PDP is not much different from the Rivers State scenario. Nyako has enemies within and without. The move to register the Peoples Democratic Movement spearheaded by former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has been attributed to the uneasy relationship he has at home with Nyako. It is to be noted, too, that the party’s national chairman, Alhaji Bamanga Tukur hails from the state. The situation remains foggy. How it turns out remains to be seen.

Now that 2015 is fast approaching, the calculations are pouring and permutations are beginning but the interesting part is that the whole contest is good for democracy.

Now in this contest, the electorates are the best deciders. When the period comes, it is important that sentiment is not attached to parties and candidates. Programmes that directly affect the progress and development of the nation must be considered in making a better choice.

As Taiye Solarin would say, “He who sits on the couching of advantage sleeps off…”  I hope the Landlord of the villa wakes up on time.

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