Political Economy: @Delemomodu Political Permutations Threshold To @Obyezeks Devaluation By Ade Ilemobade
@Delemomodu attempted to do political arithmetic in his latest piece that ”tastes” more like political history of presidential party politics coming from a pundit extraordinair weaving all kinds of primordial cleavages, ethno-religious biases and political shenanigan to arrive at the rough road to 2019 which according to him is mined with all kinds of human improvised political ordinances ready to blow up any second term ambition of the president seems to me to be nothing new but a rehash of the old narratives we have heard since the inception of party politics democracy in Nigeria.
Nothing is certain in politics and I am happy he himself concluded his piece with the question who knows tomorrow? A justification necessary for what my ruminations in this piece conveyed.
Ceteris paribus is a term used frequently to mean all other things being equal but the reality of life has bequeathed to us the fact that most factors are beyond our existential control because there are other variables influencing our decision making processes that are not constant so whatever assumptions we make theorizing economic or political tendencies in our community would not necessarily be sufficient to achieve the desired result with certainty because they will always be mere assumptions this is the case inherent of the categorical inexactness of such permutations.
Political commentary sold to us as permutation with value of orderliness is never an exact scientific endeavour just like economic permutations in the neighbourhood of devaluation when presented in a grandstanding mannerism as the panacea to resolving fundamental economic flaws of Nigeria as witnessed in @obyzekes aggressive counterfactual opinion in respect of capital controls. What we are witnessing now is the result of that devaluation propaganda in an economy with a fundamentally flawed economic superstructures/non-existence of manufacturing architecture.
Political and Economic commentators in Nigeria are looking like pollsters randomly making political combinations with an economic lottery number generator looking for the lucky numbers picker that will rescue the Naira from its numeric slide into oblivion.
I have said this umpteenth times that politics and economics are disciplines with massive emotional biases, that is not to say we do not make rational cognitive decisions but most people’s rational decisions are influenced by ubiquitous emotions in our lives and that is one of the reasons why it is difficult to make absolute statements about economic policy outcome neither can we say with certainty within the purview of politics who will emerge as the candidate(s) of a given political party or how/what the outcome of an election would be.
It is too early in my opinion to start talking about 2019 when we have massive socio economic challenges before us that looks insurmountable, this is not the time to heat up the polity with calculations and permutations that have no direct or significant effect in the resolution of the existential reality of Nigerians with immediate effect.
In conclusion the fallacy that Jonathan can bounce back to power like President Mathieu Kerekou is a laughable proposition and I am sticking my neck out here knowing fully well that you never say never.
OTUNBA ADE ILEMOBADE is a philosopher