The Nine Deadly Scenario of Nigeria By Paul Omoruyi
Nigeria would not be at this level of total anarchy if Olusegun Obasanjo had listened and planned for Nigeria’s future! The National Intelligence Council – a group of top US experts on Sub-Saharan Africa convened more than ten years to discuss, brainstorm and analyze the potential political, religious, economic and democratization future scenario of Africa countries.
At the end of their analyses, they produced a report that contains blow-by-blow of what Nigeria is experiencing today.
In that report, I have extracted NINE Analyses that pertains to Nigeria’s. While these “foreigners” were busy using their brains to THINK about Nigeria’s future, Nigerian leaders were busy stealing public funds, dying on top of prostitutes, buying private jets and wearing agbada here and there.
Instead of the then Nigeria’s president (Olusegun Obasanjo) and National House of Assembly to take swift action and look seriously into the report, they told Nigerians to pray because the US NIC is a “prophet of doom”. Like any religious undiscerning and gullible people, Nigerians prayed and prayed and prayed and still praying without THINKING!
As a quintessential Nigerian, unfortunately, President Goodluck Jonathan is just buying time hoping that the Boko Haram insurgency would die a natural death. Today, he blames those that have infiltrated his government to support Boko Haram. Tomorrow, he’s forming baseless committees that would not produce anything or result. He’s in for a surprise! This fight for the soul of Nigeria requires MEN with some juice in their brains ready to take the bull by the horns.
The first lady of Nigeria has asked us to continue to pray. Prayers that they have used to “weaken” our resolve as a people and nation. Pray, we will. After prayers, what else? Can Nigeria leaders – from the President to the military brass and intelligence personnel stay up all night to brainstorm and THINK of the way forward to help Nigeria?
Maybe one or two nights of aggressive THINKING of strategies and actions can save Nigerians than 15 years of prayers for Nigeria. Maybe, just maybe (not to belittle the efficacy of prayers).
Extracts From The US National Intelligence Council Conference – Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa’s Future.
1. Downside scenarios included: Nigeria as a failed state, dragging down a large part of the West African region; some type of ecological downturn; and conflict over water.
2. For instance, 20,000 people have been killed in Nigeria while that country has maintained its democratic façade.
3. Africa has experienced some religious conflict to date, especially in Nigeria, but one of the great unanswered questions is how much more violence religious diversity will promote. Africa is at the center of many proselytizing efforts worldwide: the Catholic Church has made Africa a priority while Pentecostal and Evangelical Christian movements spend millions of dollars on recruiting large numbers of Africans. Iran has also devoted substantial efforts to fostering its religious and political views in Africa. Finally, Saudi Arabia has spent large amounts of money to export its exclusionary Wahhabi tradition.
4. It is highly unlikely, no matter other domestic developments, that Nigeria will develop a distinct identity as a Muslim state, although religious conflict centered around Islam within Nigeria is likely to continue.
5. Radical Islam will find explicit support amongst a small but increasing number of state officials, as is the case in Northern Nigeria today. More common will be the adherents of radical Islam who find friendly communities grateful for material support from Iran and/or Saudi Arabia, and who can operate with relatively little fear of government detection.
6. The most important would be the outright collapse of Nigeria. While currently Nigeria’s leaders are locked in a bad marriage that all dislike but dare not leave, there are possibilities that could disrupt the precarious equilibrium in Abuja. The most important would be a junior officer coup that could destabilize the country to the extent that open warfare breaks out in many places in a sustained manner. If Nigeria were to become a failed state, it could drag down a large part of the West African region. Even state failure in small countries such as Liberia has the effect of destabilizing entire neighborhoods. If millions were to flee a collapsed Nigeria, the surrounding countries, up to and including Ghana, would be destabilized. Further, a Failed Nigeria probably could not be reconstituted for many years—if ever—and not without massive international assistance.
7. If Angola, Nigeria, and Sudan—three of Africa’s largest and most important countries—actually began to use their revenues from oil in productive ways, these states would become stronger, tens of millions of Africans would benefit from reduced poverty, and the impact on the region might be significant.
8. For instance, a few African countries (such as Botswana and Mauritius) have already achieved high growth while a number of other countries (Nigeria) are in significant ways poorer than they were at independence.
9. Paradoxically, other countries may be burdened by their seemingly munificent resource endowment. It is unlikely that the major oil producers (Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria, Sao
Tome, Sudan) would have a future significantly different than the ruinous record of petroleum producers to date.
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