Nigeria 2015: The Dark Horse State That May Decide The Winner Of The Presidential Election
Presidential elections were held in Nigeria on 27 February 1999. These were the first elections since the 1993 military coup, and the first elections of the Fourth Nigerian Republic. In this 2015 Elections, PDP is facing a formidable Opposition in the merged APC. Our investigation and researches took into consideration variables to reach these conclusion which we hope you will enjoy, analyse and do the needful. Importantly is for the electorates to vote freely, fairly and peacefully for their candidate.
According to Mr Dele Momodu one of Nigeria’s leading writer and advocate wrote “So
far, in all 2015 Opinion polls, Buhari is beating Jonathan mercilessly.
Without doubt, Buhari is a modern-day wonder. The story of his life is a stuff of thriller novels. In a country where money fixes most things and people, how did he manage to control the bodies and souls of his fanatical supporters? —
Further on 2011 elections, “Of course the election came as usual and Dr Goodluck Ebele Jonathan trounced Buhari mercilessly. Here was a man without loads of cash. He didn’t have a preponderance of powerful Governors behind him. He could not mobilise so many billionaires to fund him. He lacked the power of incumbency. Yet this poor man, as I like to describe him, recorded a whopping 12,214,853 votes while President Jonathan scored 22,495,187 votes.
We have gone to the electoral market and provide these analyses on the eight undecided States while taking into consideration our other survey, polls and interviews. It is therefore very imperatives for the parties to seek more awareness in these marginal yet very important states to secure the victory needed.
1 Abuja FCT 2 Adamawa 3 Edo 4 Gombe
5 Kaduna 6 Nasarawa 7 Niger 8 Ondo
- Abuja- Abuja will become the fighting field. As the Capital City and where all politics take place in the Country, there will likely be a higher level of voting which could impact on the VIP voters voting for PDP. Outskirts of Abuja, will be the judge. That is where the PDP may lose the election. Tight to call. APC Wins
- Adamawa – In 2011 election, General Buhari had only 37.96% while Goodluck Jonathan had 56%. The registered voters for 2015 are 1,559,012 (and in 2011 – 1,816,094). About 1,381,571 have collected their voting cards. If more than the voting number reached 70%, APC will win the State.
- Edo – Is divisibly between the PDP gladiators and Governor Adams of APC. Taking into consideration that only 1230566 collected their PVC out of 1,779,738 621 can create a stumbling block to APC capturing the state and giving PDP with tight win.
- Gombe – APC Buhari scored 459,898 against PDP Jonathan’s 290,347 votes out of a total registration of 1,318,377. 2015 registered voters are 1,120,023. Gombe can be captured by APC due their sentimental affiliation and values.
- Kaduna is a major player and State in the Northern Part of Nigeria since pre independence. The emergence of El Rufai as a Gov. candidate too adds values to Buhari’s ambition. In 2011, Goodluck Jonathan polled 1,190,179 against Buhari’s 1,334,244 votes. Total 2015 registered voters are 3,407,222 a reduction of about 500,000 from 2011. About 40% did not cast their votes in 2011 election. APC Wins
- Nasarawa – Nasarawa with Al-Makura is surely an APC state to lose. Though controlled by the APC, Jonathan won by 408,997 votes in 2011. A total 1242667 are registered for 2015 elections. Coupled with PDP losing strong players such as former Minister of Information, Labaran Maku, will surely tilt the state toward Buhari than PDP’s Goodluck. Too tight to call
- Niger-This is a state that boasts with two former Heads of State, Gen. Ibrahim Babangida and Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar. There are indications that they will still prefer Goodluck than Buhari for President. The Chief Servant has brought a younger blood as governorship candidate with will mobilise youths towards PDP. Gen. Buhari won Niger in 2011. Niger has 2014317 as registered voters out of 1,682,058 can votes. PDP Wins
- Ondo State has the formidable Gov. Segun Mimiko. He has maintained high level of developmental values in the State. Going by that delivery, could swung the state for Goodluck. Ondo 486,837 out of 1,616,091; PDP Wins
|PDP to win
3 Akwa Ibom
7 Cross Rivers
|APC to win
Remember – We must all seek for Peace in the election and thereafter.
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