We are in interesting times, as Simon Kolawale puts it “The Drama Republic of Nigeria” one day one drama, to think that some people are still shouting Buhari 2019 is moving from drama to tragicomedy.
We pray Buhari gets well soon, finish this tenure, retire and enjoy more abundant private life, how would anyone wishing Nigeria well be thinking of hoisting Buhari on Nigeria at the age of 76? Certainly that is not patriotism but rather parochialism.
One thing is certain here, Buhari in my view will not contest in 2019, if he does he will loose not because he has done anything wrong or because of the things he has not done right but because some factors have changed, the people’s thinking have also changed.
In the event Buhari for obvious health reasons decides to let go of power even before the end of his tenure in 2019 and Osinbajo steps in, the whole of northern Nigeria save 2 or 3 states, will shift it’s base to other parties, especially if Osinbajo wishes to contest in 2019. If he Osinbajo doesn’t throw in the cap then the battle supremo will be between the Kwankwaso, Atiku, and others in APC, Sule Lamido, others in PDP and others In other parties.
Atiku in APC cannot get the ticket, it is very obvious as the “Buhari cabal” will never support him, it is clear why El-rufai despite been a major beneficiary of the Atiku extensive network has launched series of attack on Atiku, those vituperation are not unconnected to his membership of the “cabal” Atiku will certainly contest so long he is alive and healthy, he will leave APC to another party may be PDM.
Atiku has some things going for him, stupendously rich, has a national outlook, married across Nigerian tribes and religions, the elites and business men seems to like him, he has rich network In the south south, southwest and south east and a few states in the north central and north east, but the average northerner has a wrong perception of him. He is viewed as an “elite” not “populist” and age too is not on his side even though he looks very healthy.
Kwankwaso is another major player for 2019, his Kwankwasiyya movement has got traction across North Western and North eastern states, he also performed well as a Governor of Kano state during his second term but beyond that, Kwankwaso is not a major national player, he is not seen to have a broader national view, he has not proffered any national view point, he has not being able to build any network outside the north, he is just like Buhari before Ameachi and Tinubu gave him a major face lift and pimping. Kwankwaso seems to has been edged out of the “Buhari cabal” he might have to jump ship from APC to another platform if he will appear on the ballot in 2019.
Sule Lamido, a northern radical politician with nine lives, Sule is good but like Kwankwaso Sule has no rich network even though he has manage to stay in the news for a long time either for good or bad he is good flying on the PDP ticket but PDP with its excess luggage can hardly spring any surprises in 2019 even though it is too early to call.
Another agitation that is gaining weight is the desire of the youth to take over from from all past leaders who have refused to retire and recycling themselves, in this category are several young men and women building bridges across the country but their major setback is funding, how they overcome these and other challenge is left to be seen.
