One thing you can easily predict about this nation is the fact that despite the divisive character of the national discourse, there is a generally accepted agreement, that in almost everything apart from during the reverie of a sporting victory, Nigerians argue, defend and pontificate from the fervent understanding of ethnic and religious differences. Thus, you could understand the level of shock, disappointment and even some form of revulsion, which followed the results of the staggered primaries of the Social Democratic Party in 1992, principally, between retired Major General Shehu Musa Yar’adua of the People’s Democratic Movement faction of the party and Dr. Olu Falae, Chief Lateef Jakande and many others of the People’s Front section of the government formed political contraption. When what was easily predicted by all and sundry, from the knowledgeable grace of political scholars to the illiterate party thug is the expected victory of the politicians coming from the region or more specifically, any of the contesting duo having lineal root in the area claiming political glory.
As expected, Chief Jakande was so angry with the result, that he challenged Yar’adua to a popularity walk in the streets of Lagos, to determine how a foreigner could defeat a son of the soil, expectedly, Yar’adua replied and stated the obvious fact, which is that he can never hope to defeat the ever popular Action Governor of Eko, as he explained; I did not defeat you in your traditional base, rather, the trio of Femi Agbalajobi, Dapo Sarumi and Yomi Edu did, because, it is they whom the people voted, as the representatives of my movement, thus any popularity contest should be between you and them. Highlighting the position and placement of perception, imagery and acceptability in politics and more so election results, within the mindset and general concurrence of the public in the processes and system leading to the leadership formation process, which is inferring that for any election result to be acceptable, it must pass the test of rational logic of what is generally regarded as emanating from the popular will of the ever cynical Nigerian public, anything else, the shout of incredible and un-credible fraud fills the air.
Actually, what motivated this discussion was the seeming reassuring statement by the National Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission, Professor Attahiru Jega, that Nigerians should not expect the electoral agency to deliver a perfect election. The first thought that came to my mind after hearing the robust resolve, was to assume perhaps such an assertion was a Freudian slip, a kind of forewarning to the citizenry of what 2015 might become. Because to make a vow of none perfection, presupposes that the last contest must have been good, even great or devoid of much credibility problem. Unfortunately, that is not the recounted story of 2011 elections, at least not within the perception of ordinary Nigerian citizen, who had for ages often cried, about the derelict behavior of elected politicians and even complained louder, on the integrity deficiency of the national electoral umpire.
Thus, upon resumption of office of Jega prior to the polls, it raised the hope of millions of the population, basically, because of his activist past as well as the scholarly eminence in political science, alas, the monumental expectations was quickly dashed, as more people died in the 2011 than even the much reviled 2007 elections, conducted by the incredibly partisan Professor Maurice Iwu. The same corruptly tainted politicians, whom the public have openly complained about, were easily returned to office, thus defeating that basic cardinal principle of democracy, which celebrates the power of the voter to effect change in leadership. Of course, to be fair to the national electoral chair, the number of resulting litigations from the last general polling exercise almost halved in quantity, while the commendation of foreign observer groups was nearly unanimously positive. However, Nigeria’s problem of electoral acceptability is neither foreign nor international but distinctly local in nature, which is the ability of process to gain local legitimacy, apart from the enshrined dictates of legality that is taken as given, despite whatever flaw in the democratic exercise.
It is very instructive to note, that almost the entire leadership of the electoral agency upon announcing the election date, immediately left for Washington, while announcing that the exercise is to be conducted in an unusual top to bottom program of descending order, starting from the highest office in the land, unto the lowest voted position within the purview of powers of the electing body, tentatively fixing the presidential election on the 14th of February 2015. As they stated, the purpose of the visit is to brainstorm on a national activity that has its core challenges based in the home front, which are the notoriously known afflictions bedeviling elections in Nigeria and they are; the citizenry’s dangerously cynical apathy towards the process, the often justified mistrust of the Independent National Electoral Commission, principally, because of what has happened in the past, which is the usual organization of fraudulent elections.
Cleverly but counterproductively, the idea is to make the electoral agency to finish with the presidential polls first, basically, because it is the one which attracts the biggest media attention, the highest number of foreign observers, the largest measure of diplomatic as well as international scrutiny but most importantly, the American and European observers do not care whether democratic norms are adhered to, insofar as, they observe peaceful voting in the few centers they are able to visit on election day and immediately leaving for their home countries, after announcement of the often disputed results, leaving the coast clear for that unproven Nigerian myth, which is the magically unexplainable bandwagon effect.
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